Medical College of Wisconsin
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Optimal treatment strategy in patients with papillary thyroid cancer: a decision analysis. Surgery 2001 Dec;130(6):921-30

Date

12/14/2001

Pubmed ID

11742318

DOI

10.1067/msy.2001.118370

Scopus ID

2-s2.0-0035659633 (requires institutional sign-in at Scopus site)   118 Citations

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The management of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) remains controversial. We used decision analysis to identify the optimal treatment strategy for patients with PTC, stratified by risk-group classification.

METHODS: We designed a Markov model to compare thyroid lobectomy and total thyroidectomy (with adjuvant radioiodine therapy) in low- and high-risk patients with PTC. Morbidity, recurrence, and mortality estimates were obtained from the literature. Outcomes were quality-adjusted by using health state preferences.

RESULTS: In low-risk patients, lobectomy and total thyroidectomy resulted in 31.7 and 32.9 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Total thyroidectomy was the optimal strategy as long as the relative risk of recurrence after lobectomy was greater than 1.3. Lobectomy became the preferred strategy if subjects were willing to give up 1.5 years of life to avoid thyroid hormone dependency and a remote risk of radioiodine-induced malignancy. In high-risk patients, lobectomy and total thyroidectomy resulted in 11.2 and 16.5 QALYs. Model results were robust to varying the permanent complication rates of initial or completion thyroidectomy, the efficacy of adjuvant radioiodine therapy, and the impact of complications and cancer recurrence on quality of life, irrespective of risk-group classification.

CONCLUSIONS: Total thyroidectomy maximized quality-adjusted life expectancy in low- and high-risk patients with PTC.

Author List

Esnaola NF, Cantor SB, Sherman SI, Lee JE, Evans DB

Author

Douglas B. Evans MD Professor in the Surgery department at Medical College of Wisconsin




MESH terms used to index this publication - Major topics in bold

Carcinoma, Papillary
Decision Support Techniques
Humans
Thyroid Neoplasms
Thyroidectomy