Faculty Collaboration Database

Does the Adoption of Molecular Testing Cause Decreased Thyroidectomy Rates in a National Cohort? A Quasiexperimental Study of High- Versus Low-Adoption States. Thyroid 2024 Mar;34(3):388-398

Date

01/22/2024

Pubmed ID

38251649

DOI

10.1089/thy.2023.0651

Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85187914908 (requires institutional sign-in at Scopus site)   18 Citations

Abstract

Background: Over the last decade, the utilization of molecular testing (MT) for the evaluation of thyroid nodules has increased. Rates and patterns of adoption of MT and its effect on thyroidectomy rates nationally are unknown. Varying rates of MT adoption at the state level provide an opportunity to study the effects of MT on thyroidectomy rates using a quasiexperimental study design. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of American adult patients in the Merative™ MarketScan^® Research Databases who underwent thyroid fine-needle aspiration (FNA) from 2011 to 2021. MT included commercially available DNA and RNA platforms and traditional targeted mutational analysis. Interrupted time series analysis was used to evaluate the inflection of MT adoption and thyroidectomy rates after 2015. Difference-in-differences (DID) analysis was used to causally analyze the effect of MT adoption on thyroidectomy rates in high-adoption (at least a 10% increase in MT utilization) versus low-adoption states (no more than 5% increase in MT utilization) from 2015 to 2021. Results: We identified 471,364 patients who underwent thyroid FNA. The utilization of MT increased over the study period from 0.01% [confidence interval, CI: 0.00% to 0.02%] to 10.1% [CI: 9.7% to 10.5%], in 2021, with an immediate (β2 = 1.61, p = 0.002) and deeper (β3 = 0.6, p < 0.001) increase in MT adoption after 2015. Utilization of MT was lower in black patients, the elderly, rural areas, and patients with Medicaid (p < 0.05). Thyroidectomy rates were inversely correlated with MT utilization (r = -0.98, p < 0.0001). From 2015 to 2021, the average MT utilization rate increased from 2.4% to 15.3% in high-adoption states and 1.6% to 5.6% in low-adoption states. In low-adoption states, thyroidectomy rates decreased more but to similar levels (18.5-13.2%) compared with high-adoption states (15.9-13.4%) with an adjusted DID rate of -3.3% [CI -5.6% to -0.8%]. Conclusions: The acceleration in adoption of MT after 2015 likely coincides with the publication of American Thyroid Association guidelines. Black, elderly, and rural patients are less likely to receive MT. Although thyroidectomy rates were inversely correlated with MT utilization, our study suggests that this correlation is not causal. The effect of MT on thyroidectomy rates may be overshadowed by decreasing aggressiveness of thyroid nodule evaluation.

Author List

Huang Y, Chan SJ, Wright JD, Kuo JH, McManus CM, Lee JA, Kuo EJ

Author

Catherine McManus MD, MS Associate Professor in the Surgery department at Medical College of Wisconsin

MESH terms used to index this publication - Major topics in bold

Adult
Aged
Humans
Molecular Diagnostic Techniques
Retrospective Studies
Thyroid Neoplasms
Thyroid Nodule
Thyroidectomy