Predictive Validity of a 2-Question Alcohol Screen at 1-, 2-, and 3-Year Follow-up. Pediatrics 2019 Mar;143(3)
Date
02/21/2019Pubmed ID
30783022Pubmed Central ID
PMC6398369DOI
10.1542/peds.2018-2001Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85062765914 (requires institutional sign-in at Scopus site) 8 CitationsAbstract
BACKGROUND: The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) 2-question screen is a valid adolescent alcohol screening tool. No studies have examined if this tool predicts future alcohol problems. We conducted a study at 16 pediatric emergency departments to determine the tool's predictive validity for alcohol misuse and alcohol use disorders (AUDs).
METHODS: Participants (N = 4834) completed a baseline assessment battery. A subsample of participants completed the battery at 1, 2, and 3 years follow up.
RESULTS: Of the 2209 participants assigned to follow-up, 1611 (73%) completed a 1-year follow-up, 1591 (72%) completed a 2-year follow-up, and 1377 (62%) completed a 3-year follow-up. The differences in AUDs between baseline NIAAA screen nondrinkers and lower-risk drinkers were statistically significant at 1 year (P = .0002), 2 years (P <.0001), and 3 years (P = .0005), as were the differences between moderate- and highest-risk drinkers at 1 and 2 years (P < .0001 and P = .0088, respectively) but not at 3 years (P = .0758). The best combined score for sensitivity (86.2% at 1 year, 75.6% at 2 years, and 60.0% at 3 years) and specificity (78.1% at 1 year, 79.2% at 2 years, and 80.0% at 3 years) was achieved by using "lower risk" and higher as a cutoff for the prediction of a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition diagnosis.
CONCLUSIONS: The NIAAA 2-question screen can accurately characterize adolescent risk for future AUDs. Future studies are needed to determine optimaluse of the screen.
Author List
Linakis JG, Bromberg JR, Casper TC, Chun TH, Mello MJ, Richards R, Mull CC, Shenoi RP, Vance C, Ahmad F, Bajaj L, Brown KM, Chernick LS, Cohen DM, Fein J, Horeczko T, Levas MN, McAninch B, Monuteaux MC, Grupp-Phelan J, Powell EC, Rogers A, Suffoletto B, Dean JM, Spirito A, Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research NetworkAuthor
Michael Levas MD Professor in the Pediatrics department at Medical College of WisconsinMESH terms used to index this publication - Major topics in bold
AdolescentAlcoholism
Child
Emergency Service, Hospital
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Humans
Male
Predictive Value of Tests
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Factors
Surveys and Questionnaires
Time Factors
Underage Drinking