Development of a Risk Model for Pediatric Hospital-Acquired Thrombosis: A Report from the Children's Hospital-Acquired Thrombosis Consortium. J Pediatr 2021 Jan;228:252-259.e1
Date
09/14/2020Pubmed ID
32920105Pubmed Central ID
PMC7752847DOI
10.1016/j.jpeds.2020.09.016Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85092213515 (requires institutional sign-in at Scopus site) 24 CitationsAbstract
OBJECTIVE: To identify pertinent clinical variables discernible on the day of hospital admission that can be used to assess risk for hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) in children.
STUDY DESIGN: The Children's Hospital-Acquired Thrombosis Registry is a multi-institutional registry for all hospitalized participants aged 0-21 years diagnosed with a HA-VTE and non-VTE controls. A risk assessment model (RAM) for the development of HA-VTE using demographic and clinical VTE risk factors present at hospital admission was derived using weighted logistic regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection (Lasso) procedure. The models were internally validated using 5-fold cross-validation. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit, respectively.
RESULTS: Clinical data from 728 cases with HA-VTE and 839 non-VTE controls, admitted between January 2012 and December 2016, were abstracted. Statistically significant RAM elements included age <1 year and 10-22 years, cancer, congenital heart disease, other high-risk conditions (inflammatory/autoimmune disease, blood-related disorder, protein-losing state, total parental nutrition dependence, thrombophilia/personal history of VTE), recent hospitalization, immobility, platelet count >350 K/μL, central venous catheter, recent surgery, steroids, and mechanical ventilation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.80).
CONCLUSIONS: Once externally validated, this RAM will identify those who are at low-risk as well as the greatest-risk groups of hospitalized children for investigation of prophylactic strategies in future clinical trials.
Author List
Jaffray J, Branchford B, Goldenberg N, Malvar J, Croteau SE, Silvey M, Fargo JH, Cooper JD, Bakeer N, Sposto R, Ji L, Zakai NA, Faustino EVS, Stillings A, Krava E, Young G, Mahajerin AAuthor
Brian Branchford MD Associate Professor in the Pediatrics department at Medical College of WisconsinMESH terms used to index this publication - Major topics in bold
AdolescentCase-Control Studies
Child
Child, Preschool
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Hospitalization
Hospitals, Pediatric
Humans
Incidence
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Male
ROC Curve
Registries
Retrospective Studies
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
United States
Venous Thromboembolism
Young Adult
