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Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now? Arch Public Health 2022 Jan 08;80(1):22

Date

01/10/2022

Pubmed ID

34998438

Pubmed Central ID

PMC8742165

DOI

10.1186/s13690-021-00778-y

Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85122738484 (requires institutional sign-in at Scopus site)   5 Citations

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations.

METHODS: The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities.

RESULTS: The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS: In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.

Author List

Al-Zoughool M, Oraby T, Vainio H, Gasana J, Longenecker J, Al Ali W, AlSeaidan M, Elsaadany S, Tyshenko MG

Author

Janvier Gasana MD, MPH, PhD Adjunct Associate Professor in the Institute for Health and Equity department at Medical College of Wisconsin