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Spatio-temporal Distribution of Suicide Risk in Iran: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Repeated Cross-sectional Data. J Prev Med Public Health 2022 Mar;55(2):164-172

Date

04/09/2022

Pubmed ID

35391528

Pubmed Central ID

PMC8995936

DOI

10.3961/jpmph.21.385

Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85127742797 (requires institutional sign-in at Scopus site)   1 Citation

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016.

METHODS: In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used.

RESULTS: The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran's provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran's provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years.

CONCLUSIONS: The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran's northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.

Author List

Hashemi Nazari SS, Mansori K, Nazari Kangavari H, Shojaei A, Arsang-Jang S

Author

Shahram Arsang-Jang Postdoctoral Fellow in the Medicine department at Medical College of Wisconsin




MESH terms used to index this publication - Major topics in bold

Bayes Theorem
Cross-Sectional Studies
Female
Humans
Iran
Male
Suicide