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The Sclerosing Cholangitis Outcomes in Pediatrics (SCOPE) Index: A Prognostic Tool for Children. Hepatology 2021 Mar;73(3):1074-1087



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Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85097772175   12 Citations


BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Disease progression in children with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is variable. Prognostic and risk-stratification tools exist for adult-onset PSC, but not for children. We aimed to create a tool that accounts for the biochemical and phenotypic features and early disease stage of pediatric PSC.

APPROACH AND RESULTS: We used retrospective data from the Pediatric PSC Consortium. The training cohort contained 1,012 patients from 40 centers. We generated a multivariate risk index (Sclerosing Cholangitis Outcomes in Pediatrics [SCOPE] index) that contained total bilirubin, albumin, platelet count, gamma glutamyltransferase, and cholangiography to predict a primary outcome of liver transplantation or death (TD) and a broader secondary outcome that included portal hypertensive, biliary, and cancer complications termed hepatobiliary complications (HBCs). The model stratified patients as low, medium, or high risk based on progression to TD at rates of <1%, 3%, and 9% annually and to HBCs at rates of 2%, 6%, and 13% annually, respectively (P < 0.001). C-statistics to discriminate outcomes at 1 and 5 years were 0.95 and 0.82 for TD and 0.80 and 0.76 for HBCs, respectively. Baseline hepatic fibrosis stage was worse with increasing risk score, with extensive fibrosis in 8% of the lowest versus 100% with the highest risk index (P < 0.001). The model was validated in 240 children from 11 additional centers and performed well.

CONCLUSIONS: The SCOPE index is a pediatric-specific prognostic tool for PSC. It uses routinely obtained, objective data to predict a complicated clinical course. It correlates strongly with biopsy-proven liver fibrosis. SCOPE can be used with families for shared decision making on clinical care based on a patient's individual risk, and to account for variable disease progression when designing future clinical trials.

Author List

Deneau MR, Mack C, Perito ER, Ricciuto A, Valentino PL, Amin M, Amir AZ, Aumar M, Auth M, Broderick A, DiGuglielmo M, Draijer LG, Tavares Fagundes ED, El-Matary W, Ferrari F, Furuya KN, Gupta N, Hochberg JT, Homan M, Horslen S, Iorio R, Jensen MK, Jonas MM, Kamath BM, Kerkar N, Kim KM, Kolho KL, Koot BGP, Laborda TJ, Lee CK, Loomes KM, Martinez M, Miethke A, Miloh T, Mogul D, Mohammad S, Mohan P, Moroz S, Ovchinsky N, Palle S, Papadopoulou A, Rao G, Rodrigues Ferreira A, Sathya P, Schwarz KB, Shah U, Shteyer E, Singh R, Smolka V, Soufi N, Tanaka A, Varier R, Vitola B, Woynarowski M, Zerofsky M, Zizzo A, Guthery SL


Cara Lynn Mack MD Chief, Professor in the Pediatrics department at Medical College of Wisconsin

MESH terms used to index this publication - Major topics in bold

Cholangitis, Sclerosing
Disease Progression
Liver Transplantation
Platelet Count
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Serum Albumin